Fifa International · resolved market
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fc8f0c2d6743b8a74be00cea56f7ddcc2aa3cd92033b2502e336a1df9ee1481
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9868…64b0backed Yes | 16c | 5,994$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.74 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 2,739$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.4 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…b501backed Yes | 55c | 2,360$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…4615backed Yes | 23c | 2,161$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.57 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked Yes | 15c | 1,812$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.76 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 13c | 1,797$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.75 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 74c | 1,752$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.02 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 79c | 1,639$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.13 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,285$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 1,215$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.55 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc07…0685backed Yes | 24c | 979.63$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 956.3$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.02 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 78c | 951.91$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.78 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…6dfebacked Yes | 16c | 871.54$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.09 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…bf88backed Yes | 20c | 668.92$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.78 | 193 | 32.6%63 W · 130 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…efe0backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 78c | 542.28$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.63 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 493.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 55c | 493.92$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.9 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015c…e520backed Yes | 21c | 478.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…fda9backed Yes | 24c | 458.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 458.73$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.77 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…a4ebbacked Yes | 16c | 415.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 411$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.27 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…41d2backed Yes | 24c | 408.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked No | 76c | 400$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b47…75f1backed Yes | 14c | 334.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 332.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 332.48$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9b…02a1backed Yes | 33c | 301.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 75c | 288.81$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 272.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 77c | 269$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 243.26$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…476dbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a7…3145backed Yes | 21c | 212.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…2a96backed Yes | 24c | 210.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 19c | 210.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 14c | 201.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 116 | 11.2%13 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53e…2728backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d5…7344backed Yes | 26c | 192.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…0473backed Yes | 19c | 184.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x911e…0f46backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 16c | 179.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…1c1bbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 77c | 152.12$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…eb6dbacked Yes | 22c | 133.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…fed9backed Yes | 24c | 125.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…f8c5backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 118.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 208 | 62%129 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…441dbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…266cbacked Yes | 27c | 111.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf558…683fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…46f8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 101 | 30.7%31 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d1…5369backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 79c | 95.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…4253backed Yes | 22c | 92.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…c35fbacked Yes | 22c | 91.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 69c | 88.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 151 | 58.3%88 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85c…cceabacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde94…c8b2backed Yes | 18c | 87.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 24c | 69.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 63.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 16c | 63.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 79c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Japan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Japan be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Japan win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.