Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbe80633c3368b8db673b680774d74db42c9ec8f771437effa2f6877b7158b11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0809…e162backed Yes | 0c | 10,037$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 1,495$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked Yes | 15c | 734.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 687.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 637.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 18c | 543.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…7561backed Yes | 18c | 488.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 428.88$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 396.38$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 16c | 372$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 346.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 39c | 332.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 308.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 306.47$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 21c | 286.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 23c | 273.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 271$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 263.51$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 252.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 20c | 241.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 236.14$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 11c | 158$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 141.67$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 13c | 131.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 16c | 126.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2d…e67cbacked Yes | 16c | 123.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 14c | 106.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 105.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 14c | 103.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 25c | 100.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 37c | 93.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 25c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 79.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 77.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 23c | 65.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…fb01backed Yes | 28c | 43.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 38c | 42.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 41.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed No | 67c | 40.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 38c | 39.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked No | 79c | 38.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 78c | 33.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 73c | 32.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 30.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab6…f3debacked No | 80c | 22.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 77c | 22.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 76c | 21.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 18.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 15.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 72c | 15.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.