Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1be8d693050a502aeb0851687b186f8c305c6ad339428093de4af1874373dbd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 58c | 4,928$2,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,055.8 | 429 | 45.5%195 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 1c | 1,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 3c | 1,297$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 54c | 999.99$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.51 | 409 | 37.9%155 W · 254 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 22c | 700$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.57 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 645.85$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.47 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 40c | 642.8$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.29 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 3c | 599.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,005 | 51.8%521 W · 484 L | +108.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 880 | 49.5%436 W · 444 L | -26.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 483.78$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.98 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 435.32$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.05 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 423.54$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 39c | 422.62$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.51 | 2,335 | 20.6%480 W · 1,855 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 36c | 417.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 28c | 405.12$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.64 | 1,063 | 35.1%373 W · 690 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 36c | 396.92$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 395$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.08 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 41c | 390.31$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 44c | 388$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.72 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 11c | 383$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…d314backed Yes | 63c | 370.05$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 366.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 5c | 337.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…ae71backed Yes | 61c | 310$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 300.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,868 | 37.7%705 W · 1,163 L | +282.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 38c | 266.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 679 | 44.6%303 W · 376 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 60c | 262.84$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 77c | 248.61$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 71c | 224.02$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 78c | 199.71$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 888 | 55.7%495 W · 393 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 41c | 194.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 194.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 27c | 188.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…6616backed No | 38c | 174.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 45c | 169.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361a…9b39backed No | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 25c | 156.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 148.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 8c | 138.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 77c | 138.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 135.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 45c | 130.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 129.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 114$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 111.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 43c | 109.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 36c | 105$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 453 | 46.4%210 W · 243 L | -20.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 97.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 2,155 | 59.6%1,285 W · 870 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 24c | 97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 831 | 42.6%354 W · 477 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 39c | 87.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 70c | 84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…6606backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 34c | 69.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 67c | 66.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 73c | 60.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed No | 32c | 57.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,412 | 65.3%922 W · 490 L | +60.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 65c | 56.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 2,267 | 57.4%1,301 W · 966 L | +72.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 77c | 54.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,324 | 51.1%676 W · 648 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6b…9f9bbacked No | 31c | 52.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,279 | 53.9%690 W · 589 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…5d42backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83aa…35bbbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0405backed Yes | 63c | 48.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 43c | 47.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 60c | 46.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 34c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 185 | 42.2%78 W · 107 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 29c | 45.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…bf76backed Yes | 63c | 45.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 66c | 45.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 198 | 50%99 W · 99 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 62c | 44.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 191 | 56%107 W · 84 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 62c | 44.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 70c | 42.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3a…a88bbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7b…cc40backed Yes | 61c | 39.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 63c | 38.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 624 | 22.4%140 W · 484 L | -29.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 490 | 49%240 W · 250 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 57c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 62c | 35.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 202 | 44.1%89 W · 113 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 76c | 35.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 59c | 33.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…cbc1backed No | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 59c | 31.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 1,253 | 58.2%729 W · 524 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.