TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,713
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,469

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,713 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes0c25,344$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5828324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes0c10,791$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.56845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91f8…d951backed Yes5c4,322$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.565752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes1c3,954$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.897,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes5c2,531$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes15c2,514$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.4521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes1c1,917$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0635429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes5c1,871$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86cb…0a90backed Yes11c1,844$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.22347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de1…18a2backed Yes7c1,529$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.443515.2%66 W · 369 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes3c1,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c1,431$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.8210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked No72c1,260$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.87748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes10c1,047$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6436930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes2c1,026$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.452,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes12c828.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.351,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7831…a330backed Yes2c654.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.933327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked Yes12c600.26$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.123441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c561.26$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.738,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes4c481.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.564,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes5c467.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.411,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes4c455.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.361225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-58.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No74c447.15$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.062,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes35c430$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.54,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes9c364.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3340265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes29c342.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes9c340.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3313959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes5c333.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.593,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes12c323.23$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.828,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No79c307.21$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5174926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes9c227.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2622849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes31c223.96$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.381,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…8af6backed No74c210.62$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.93246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a338backed Yes5c207.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6229037.9%110 W · 180 L+29.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes9c186.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2224841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes32c180$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.671649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No75c176.25$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0661760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes32c168.06$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed No74c158.41$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1917433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes30c146.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.872,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes30c136.71$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.275,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes30c136$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes33c135.03$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4423146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes31c134.15$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.961,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes32c130.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.732440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes25c129.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes16c126.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.061,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x06e3…e4e2backed Yes33c126.39$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.841428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d56…eb97backed Yes12c125.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.47100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes22c116.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2467633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa967…79a5backed Yes35c108.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.738050%40 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No69c105$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.551,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd456…8a8bbacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed No66c90.68$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6812466.1%82 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No71c89.07$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.164,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes30c88.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.371,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No70c85$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.53,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes36c83.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3082742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No68c76$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4218671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No69c74.48$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7439956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked Yes25c73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2525541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9876…86b4backed Yes18c71.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.241566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No70c71.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6267158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes33c69.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0332738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No71c68.03$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7114945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No76c66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.524,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes32c62.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No69c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.93,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed Yes34c57.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4720347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No58c54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No69c50.72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7245675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No68c49.25$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7742366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.745,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x632f…5381backed Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.43,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c39.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.83,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed Yes29c38.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0846857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed Yes30c34.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1117020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes40c32.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.244945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94de…e3cabacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105042%21 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c30.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.424,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.64337.2%16 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58ea…08e0backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.53661.1%22 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No70c27.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.221,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No78c26.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7be1…6f94backed No76c26.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.442171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c26.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.14,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No71c25.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4265353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No70c25.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5154867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No69c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4443559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No72c22.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.211,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.63,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.148261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No73c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.599573.7%70 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed No74c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1623668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.