Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbfa366d954d9c90cfddacd521daad81b59244c5a031b3342e0856a143a576f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 0c | 25,344$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 0c | 10,791$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed Yes | 5c | 4,322$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.56 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 1c | 3,954$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 5c | 2,531$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 15c | 2,514$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.45 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,917$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes | 5c | 1,871$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…0a90backed Yes | 11c | 1,844$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 7c | 1,529$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 1,431$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 72c | 1,260$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.8 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 10c | 1,047$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,026$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 12c | 828.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 2c | 654.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked Yes | 12c | 600.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 561.26$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 481.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 467.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes | 4c | 455.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 447.15$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 430$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 9c | 364.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 29c | 342.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 9c | 340.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 5c | 333.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 323.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 79c | 307.21$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 9c | 227.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 223.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed No | 74c | 210.62$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 5c | 207.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 9c | 186.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 32c | 180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 176.25$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 168.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 74c | 158.41$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 30c | 146.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 136.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 30c | 136$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 33c | 135.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 31c | 134.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 32c | 130.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 129.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 126.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…e4e2backed Yes | 33c | 126.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d56…eb97backed Yes | 12c | 125.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 116.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 35c | 108.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 66c | 90.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 89.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 88.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 36c | 83.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 68c | 76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 69c | 74.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…86b4backed Yes | 18c | 71.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 70c | 71.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 69.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 71c | 68.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 62.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 34c | 57.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 58c | 54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 68c | 49.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…5381backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 29c | 38.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 30c | 34.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 40c | 32.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 30.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 27.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 78c | 26.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…6f94backed No | 76c | 26.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 26.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 71c | 25.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 70c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 22.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.