Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc2422da7c7cfc21604f37b3be6394aab7531a482915260eeed378556c0530d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Under | 50c | 2,444$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Over | 51c | 1,750$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.49 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 50c | 1,413$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.75 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Under | 49c | 1,340$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.73 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Over | 55c | 700.34$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd54…8462backed Over | 57c | 533.55$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Under | 47c | 499.99$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 49c | 498.7$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.46 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Under | 49c | 445.86$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.83 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Under | 50c | 396.82$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.41 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Over | 50c | 388$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc621…7c5cbacked Under | 44c | 364.83$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 45c | 296.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.75 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ba…3ca5backed Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…8404backed Over | 51c | 113.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Over | 50c | 98.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Over | 53c | 88.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 48c | 82.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…0f32backed Over | 51c | 66.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…1edebacked Under | 44c | 66.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ec…2b5ebacked Over | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…93b0backed Over | 52c | 41.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 58c | 30.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 48c | 28.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…8617backed Over | 55c | 24.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)Team Liquid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.