Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc947aa70b76354faeb0809e7e6770c58e457fd930fbc04b913eed51d0019764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Internazionale Milanoof AC Milan, FC Internazionale Milano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,817 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed AC Milan | 12c | 1,672$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.69 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed AC Milan | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8e…c15fbacked AC Milan | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed AC Milan | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed AC Milan | 12c | 235$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…c029backed AC Milan | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed AC Milan | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed AC Milan | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed AC Milan | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed AC Milan | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…e8e3backed AC Milan | 16c | 92.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7e…5705backed AC Milan | 12c | 86.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed AC Milan | 22c | 73.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)this page
- AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 1.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)FC Internazionale Milano won
- Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.