South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-07-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcfe5654c6b0b12e5008b8c8075e34377dafba0cfc7b910ffa5f0630bd3fcec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61d4…3593backed No | 26c | 4,020$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.66 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 13c | 2,982$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.36 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked No | 8c | 2,612$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.78 | 106 | 18.9%20 W · 86 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 16c | 2,437$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.34 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 43c | 2,387$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.45 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Yes | 54c | 1,726$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.43 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No | 17c | 1,711$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.61 | 232 | 54.7%127 W · 105 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Yes | 73c | 1,644$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.83 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 13c | 1,126$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.06 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…3259backed No | 3c | 932.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed No | 20c | 920.81$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.79 | 215 | 38.1%82 W · 133 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 4c | 846$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 97 | 10.3%10 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2968…1e6ebacked Yes | 78c | 768.39$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.24 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x275c…349cbacked No | 14c | 737.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…029abacked Yes | 63c | 687.6$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed No | 7c | 669.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 156 | 25.6%40 W · 116 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 9c | 658$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed No | 9c | 604.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed No | 33c | 588.74$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.28 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…2c16backed No | 15c | 578.1$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…c687backed No | 8c | 562.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Yes | 71c | 549.66$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.64 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked No | 13c | 547.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…9168backed No | 75c | 468$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 54c | 406.04$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.95 | 85 | 69.4%59 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Yes | 73c | 362.23$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 36c | 340.13$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.07 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 79c | 333.58$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 79c | 325.26$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 302.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.73 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…9435backed Yes | 69c | 275.98$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 12c | 266.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…132cbacked No | 20c | 262.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 63c | 240$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +11.9wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 232.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 15c | 228$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 13c | 220.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 78 | 14.1%11 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Yes | 79c | 193.03$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 25c | 182$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 72c | 174.39$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 138.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed No | 48c | 127.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 24c | 126.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 11c | 126.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 11c | 126.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed No | 12c | 125.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked No | 44c | 120.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed No | 44c | 120.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ac…7ad0backed No | 44c | 108.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 106.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.07 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed No | 41c | 97.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 12c | 91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e33…45f6backed No | 76c | 88.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…4f7cbacked Yes | 69c | 78.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 21c | 65.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 72c | 64.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed No | 57c | 52.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 49.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…dc21backed No | 43c | 47.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…050ebacked Yes | 57c | 47.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed No | 38c | 41.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed No | 76c | 39.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 77cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…bea1backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…54c2backed No | 34c | 31.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 72c | 26.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked No | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…32c1backed No | 75c | 22.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked No | 52c | 19.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…0a26backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 74c | 15.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8c…2799backed Yes | 77c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-07-28?this page
- Will CA Tigre vs. Club Nacional de Football end in a draw?No won
- Will CA Tigre win on 2026-07-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.