Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd253965e06046dad9588b220230c0e2119e7ea36062ef2a5c48dd7d2051ac13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 78c | 886.01$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.99 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa368…1b9cbacked No | 2c | 714.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed No | 12c | 564.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 478.66$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 55c | 403.61$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.88 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 365.96$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 32c | 365.57$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 313.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.18 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 34c | 252.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 244$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 67c | 240.25$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 43c | 212.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.13 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 48c | 207.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 186.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 35c | 171.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 64c | 169.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.19 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 162.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 60c | 161.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 37c | 150$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 148.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 146$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 138.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 138.59$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 137.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 33c | 134.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 38c | 132.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 30c | 129.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…6674backed Yes | 60c | 127.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 127.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 35c | 127.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 33c | 122.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.68 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 40c | 113.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 36c | 107.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…0cc3backed Yes | 52c | 107.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 51c | 98.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 98.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 95.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 44c | 92.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 79.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 62c | 77.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 52c | 76.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 69.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 59c | 66.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 41c | 66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 49c | 61.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 65c | 60.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 65c | 60.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 63c | 59.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 58.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 57.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 33c | 56.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 67c | 54.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 52.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 39c | 51.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 49c | 51.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 50.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 26c | 49.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 66c | 49.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 36c | 48.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 34c | 45.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 45.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 73c | 44.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 25c | 40.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 57c | 39.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed Yes | 25c | 39.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 62c | 39.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 37.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 32.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 31.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd0…22c8backed Yes | 37c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 35c | 30.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 50c | 30.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.