Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5c3fa4a5fca070ca4ce8ed600ac10cea93b2a0478e3f3f559c60a1da5a9495a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 49c | 1,870$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.83 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000f…dc35backed Yes | 49c | 1,309$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 50c | 659.91$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.96 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 655.78$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.35 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 71c | 537.63$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 14c | 469.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 397.1$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 392.85$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 48c | 354.22$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 45c | 342.29$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 321$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed Yes | 8c | 304.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 48c | 283.25$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.3 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 244$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 49c | 226.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.76 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 52c | 201.66$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…4774backed Yes | 55c | 174.16$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 35c | 171.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 151.94$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 18c | 149.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 64c | 147.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 140.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 45c | 140.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 138.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 137.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 53c | 132$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 43c | 129.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 126.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 48c | 118.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 113.51$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 42c | 111.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 19c | 107.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 51c | 107.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 22c | 102.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 68cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 99.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 50c | 96.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 50c | 85.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 83.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 57c | 83.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 49c | 78.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 50c | 72.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 71.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 69.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 43c | 68.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 54c | 68.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 47c | 65.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0616…ea27backed Yes | 30c | 62.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 22c | 57.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 45c | 55.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 60c | 54.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 54.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 34c | 54.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 43c | 54.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 52c | 53.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 52c | 53.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 36c | 52.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 38c | 52.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 64c | 50.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…35f7backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 52c | 49.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 55c | 45.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 38c | 45.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 45.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 52c | 44.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 51c | 42.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 42.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 25c | 41.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 57c | 40.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 50c | 39.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…99dabacked No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…dd7ebacked Yes | 38c | 35.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 34c | 31.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 47c | 29.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 28.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc32…c430backed No | 45c | 28.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.