MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd7c8a0e35c7dc9cc93b76ca0412c700d03fe257563ac302d8d7b48bdc25b84e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 64c | 2,030$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.81 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 46c | 1,787$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.19 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 54c | 1,027$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.7 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 850.21$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 35c | 817.18$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.92 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 48c | 728.18$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.93 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 56c | 696.95$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.87 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 54c | 622.34$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.27 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 38c | 507.48$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.55 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 456.48$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 17c | 380.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 278.25$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 53c | 242.95$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 47c | 242.05$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 43c | 153.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 60c | 128.39$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 60c | 124.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Over | 47c | 101.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 47c | 93.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 57c | 86.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 53c | 83.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 54c | 81.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 22c | 79.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 42c | 72.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 60c | 71.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 54c | 70.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 66.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 58c | 58.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 57c | 51.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 47c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 54c | 35.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 43c | 35.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 53c | 27.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ba…cf3fbacked Under | 73c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 25.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 48c | 22.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 61c | 22.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 59c | 22.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 51c | 21.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Over | 60c | 21.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 54c | 21.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…5ffabacked Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.