World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd8935712fd7d9c1914973dc34886b3ee5c5d155ee1617dfe7e327fc1413d630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ed4…7a7dbacked Yes | 68c | 215.3$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 211.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 155.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.47 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 30c | 153.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 104.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 29c | 104.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 103.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 91.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 76.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 68c | 69.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 73c | 68.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed Yes | 75c | 67.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 73c | 50.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 50.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 77c | 47.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 27c | 46.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 37.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 29.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed Yes | 45c | 26.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 71c | 25.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 22.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 55c | 18.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 72c | 16.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on July 8?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C or below on July 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.