Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd9c635663d96262a109e47a95efdc9ef42699ff4c45fe0fea9c3ae14989d42c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 3c | 1,548$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 1,001$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 72c | 650.3$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.02 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 77c | 435.21$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.41 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 368.93$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 329.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 28c | 221$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 79c | 220.67$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 212.29$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 176.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 162.42$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 25c | 160.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed Yes | 14c | 150.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 25c | 139.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked No | 77c | 133.67$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c807backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 28c | 104.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 90.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 25c | 80.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3df…2d82backed Yes | 19c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 24c | 61.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 56.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 50.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 26.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 71c | 25.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.