Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5901736d5de3497665ae956622cbb3cdba92b5af667f891c05e8e178621fcd30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 2,857$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,465$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 21c | 733.53$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.26 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 474.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 21c | 445.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 442.14$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 376.53$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 73c | 340.07$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 27c | 228.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 27c | 207.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 205.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…2aafbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 6c | 199.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 190.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 33c | 178.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 78c | 163.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 80c | 125.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 123.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 18c | 111.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 64c | 89.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 68c | 81.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 26c | 78.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 76.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 27c | 75.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 78c | 66.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 65.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 54.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked No | 68c | 54.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 75c | 53.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…9e8ebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 49.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 77c | 38.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 29c | 38.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked No | 73c | 36.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.