Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9058c3d713d4306fdfd85c5d3b48ec0522e2ebaddf44c92c10a7851a2b6dcd39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 60c | 2,023$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.54 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 40c | 1,600$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 2c | 1,308$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 31c | 932.64$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.25 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 3c | 410.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 35c | 382$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.02 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No | 39c | 381.79$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.68 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 376.53$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 330.59$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 66c | 325.72$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.98 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 26c | 233.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 14c | 219.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 171.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 65c | 161.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 80c | 160.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 73c | 158.46$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 28c | 144.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 134.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 20c | 127.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 79c | 120.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 77c | 114$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 26c | 103.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.84 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 100.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 68c | 94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 73c | 85.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 70c | 83.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 17c | 74.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 42c | 74.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 70.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 75c | 58.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 56.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb92a…02a0backed Yes | 78c | 53.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 50.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 44c | 45.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 77c | 44.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed Yes | 52c | 40.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 73c | 37.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 60c | 34.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c807backed Yes | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 33.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 34c | 29.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 54c | 28.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 65c | 26.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 51c | 24.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 73c | 23.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 52c | 22.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.