Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdbfb96902f7f3c25355ec1edf998c6c1e8d98f48fa3443111a9c3794cda78fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 26c | 658.45$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.76 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 39c | 250$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.54 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed Yes | 41c | 244.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.7 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 222.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 218.28$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 210.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 166.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 51c | 160$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 159.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 38c | 131.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 127.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 56c | 118.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 109.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 105.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 29c | 101$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 86.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 85.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 76c | 76.87$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 68c | 73.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 27c | 65.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 63.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 61.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 61.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 62c | 53.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 31c | 52.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc47…15d4backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 44c | 45.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 53c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 42c | 40.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 66c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…5e85backed Yes | 37c | 38.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 44c | 37.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15da…4e2abacked No | 59c | 37.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 58c | 34.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 34c | 34.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 58c | 33.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 40c | 33.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 38c | 32.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 39c | 30.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 46c | 26.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 38c | 26.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed Yes | 39c | 25.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 73c | 21.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf07f…8a62backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 55c | 19.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 64c | 17.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 63c | 16.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 15.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 14.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…7cacbacked No | 73c | 14.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.