Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac2a6cafd5ff5f199cfc22b4ba1dd3b7f7abf27ea7f81042ae5926af799a4da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed Yes | 39c | 258.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 30c | 235.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 59c | 219.15$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 22c | 198.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 62c | 185.52$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 55c | 175.43$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2979…d76fbacked Yes | 39c | 168.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 24c | 136.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 40c | 133.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 124.53$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 115.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 112.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 40c | 110.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 64c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 108.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 60c | 107.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 28c | 91.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 78.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 30c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 74.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 73.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…37c5backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 68.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 65.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 79c | 60.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 46c | 58.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 50.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc47…15d4backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 49.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 42c | 48.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked No | 76c | 39.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73d…79d7backed Yes | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 36.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 42c | 35.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 37c | 35.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…5e85backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 45c | 32.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 30.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 26.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 62c | 24.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 62c | 23.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 21.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 53c | 19.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.