Champions League · resolved market
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdc44116af665eacc019514e29a606f5cbe2975be4c5910641b8e0ea9f03c746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 13c | 39,299$5,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,108.86 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Yes | 15c | 13,355$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 13c | 11,000$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 286 | 43.7%125 W · 161 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 14c | 9,375$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.81 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.49 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 14c | 3,500$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 112 | 18.8%21 W · 91 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 15c | 3,376$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 15c | 3,100$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.99 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 15c | 2,875$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.19 | 298 | 46.3%138 W · 160 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…4c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,050$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 17c | 1,184$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…fa89backed Yes | 14c | 1,071$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…213abacked Yes | 14c | 937.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89a…fad4backed Yes | 14c | 910$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 16c | 679.69$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…2888backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 16c | 599.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 14c | 407.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 16c | 298$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 14c | 219.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b29…d9f6backed Yes | 14c | 210.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…91f6backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…c68bbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Yes | 12c | 131.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed Yes | 14c | 115$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…fccfbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…316ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…78c4backed Yes | 14c | 99.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f0…b2efbacked Yes | 12c | 97.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…496fbacked Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d1…f7f2backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…3f6abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…64a0backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-30?this page
- Will Atletico Madrid vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?No won
- Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.