Serie A · resolved market
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-02-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdd20a111aebed446c4323b334ed25bb95698f1f28b5a7c03c5e611dd77e0eea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 12c | 4,050$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe161…a10bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,134$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 12c | 3,047$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.64 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 12c | 2,802$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.24 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 11c | 2,369$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.17 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 12c | 1,712$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.44 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207f…793bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,392$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Yes | 9c | 1,220$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2990…7cbdbacked Yes | 10c | 958.5$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Yes | 3c | 950$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa79…f645backed Yes | 13c | 776.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 13c | 770$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb9…e71cbacked Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9148…2d9ebacked Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 3c | 632$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5b…25c5backed Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…2043backed Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…e69bbacked Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 554.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…6399backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…9ec0backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1368…abaebacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…f5a3backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…6a3bbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…03b3backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…dba7backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Yes | 12c | 468.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcad…e725backed Yes | 13c | 405$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e82…f3c4backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60e…64aebacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…67e6backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab4…5fd4backed Yes | 13c | 395$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Yes | 12c | 392$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…720dbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 12c | 343.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…59ddbacked Yes | 13c | 320$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…a3f7backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3e…3ed9backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…ad5ebacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab47…92d6backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 12c | 276.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…5c06backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 6c | 237.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…707cbacked Yes | 13c | 225$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…2748backed Yes | 13c | 210$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36a…30cabacked Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1519…8916backed Yes | 13c | 205$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…4686backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…f310backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd022…1856backed Yes | 12c | 181.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80b4…a52ebacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Yes | 11c | 164.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 13c | 159.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb0…4cd4backed Yes | 12c | 156.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…843bbacked Yes | 12c | 111.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89f…6a27backed Yes | 12c | 105.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 116 | 19%22 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc513…ffe7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…b6abbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…6f38backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-02-09?this page
- Will AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw?No won
- Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.