MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbde1d14bf042dcef0d2ed4ffaef7056fdd7ddf733203872ea388c2135333c639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 3,600$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 2,217$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.98 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Francisco Giants | 69c | 1,300$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 1,163$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.09 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 1,107$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.04 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 1,049$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.63 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a4…8f85backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 909.09$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.09 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 571$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.47 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 548.05$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.15 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4aa…fa32backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 540.68$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee5…208cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 459.32$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 422$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.14 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 374.28$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked San Francisco Giants | 42c | 211.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked San Francisco Giants | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 48.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 24.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 58c | 23.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.