Asian League · resolved market
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-04-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe608f6de055d13cc4dbd7c06071dff9f29aa7d4ac3dbb8ceeb562cdd735e539
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 65c | 2,164$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.57 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 26c | 1,417$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.32 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 18c | 1,199$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.44 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 23c | 520$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.4 | 204 | 20.1%41 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 460.08$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.34 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 70c | 357.18$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.28 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked No | 46c | 354.35$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 51c | 337.24$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.76 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 21c | 316.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…d028backed No | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked No | 47c | 246.91$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 12c | 220.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…924ebacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed No | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1317backed No | 46c | 134.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | +9.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2234backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +81%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 27c | 96.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 45c | 86.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed No | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 43c | 81.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…4bbabacked Yes | 63c | 74.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 33c | 64.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…4264backed No | 39c | 61.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed No | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…b2a6backed No | 80c | 50.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…ba10backed No | 80c | 48.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95ad…4eebbacked No | 79c | 36.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…f954backed Yes | 55c | 36.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Yes | 63c | 22.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-04-29?this page
- Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-04-29?No won
- Will Tōkyō Verdy vs. Kashima Antlers end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.