Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe8c3ca3bc6925487b68fd0e5ad951594806cbcfd692b23d2a6afba0b0186c13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c97…6d28backed Yes | 0c | 3,982$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked No | 48c | 1,028$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.12 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 64c | 339.19$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.04 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 50c | 284.34$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 52c | 181$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa57c…bf42backed Yes | 50c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 40c | 135.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 135$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 48c | 126.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Yes | 69c | 104$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 30c | 73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 65.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked No | 25c | 58.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…4742backed Yes | 35c | 57.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 33c | 54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 53.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 53.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x244d…0095backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 66c | 45.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed No | 46c | 44.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 70c | 31.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 63c | 28.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 64c | 23.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 59c | 22.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 64c | 21.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9d…e947backed No | 72c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 70c | 17.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 16.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504c…e5d6backed Yes | 75c | 15.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.2wins | -0.53per pick | 65cpaid | -84%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.