College Football · resolved market
Miami vs. Florida winner?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbebbd59e416c1889d054913a351afac8c3a262dc22ca42c06d819bda9131c95f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miamiof Miami, Florida
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Florida | 40c | 11,437$4,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,625.53 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…406abacked Miami | 57c | 10,485$5,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,537.55 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Miami | 59c | 10,000$5,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,100 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked Florida | 41c | 9,800$4,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,018 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Florida | 26c | 2,926$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.6 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Miami | 60c | 793.71$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.81 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Florida | 42c | 500$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Miami | 75c | 438$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67c…9af7backed Miami | 57c | 410.31$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3908…fe4fbacked Florida | 43c | 407.09$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Florida | 44c | 364.12$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.56 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…c4d0backed Miami | 57c | 310.07$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.35 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +41%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Florida | 43c | 285$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.55 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Miami | 60c | 220$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Miami | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01cc…f88fbacked Florida | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b7…dd7ebacked Florida | 43c | 127.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348b…2432backed Florida | 29c | 118.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Miami | 57c | 104.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Florida | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Miami | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Miami | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb1…e300backed Miami | 56c | 98.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0584…bec9backed Florida | 47c | 95.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Miami | 55c | 90.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed Florida | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Florida | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed Miami | 74c | 64.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…a8f1backed Florida | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3598…5b3fbacked Miami | 57c | 56.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…c62cbacked Florida | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -73%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Florida | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Miami | 54c | 49.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Florida | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Florida | 43c | 45.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e02…5374backed Miami | 80c | 31.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…6ed7backed Miami | 57c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami vs. Florida winner?this page
- Will Miami win by 3 or more points?Yes won
- Will there be 54.5 or more combined points scored?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.