Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbedb6670c0bb4fcc1cb64fabbe4396f3b23302ea6b8269733b59d112fc4af966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 1,121$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 66c | 757.48$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 26c | 603.91$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.42 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 449.42$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 438.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 375.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 283.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6295…6286backed No | 79c | 189.21$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 179.96$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 168.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 19c | 165.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 28c | 165$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…c58bbacked No | 75c | 146.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 143.44$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 76c | 120.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…0339backed Yes | 27c | 104.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 16c | 101.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 100.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa333…dc9bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 78c | 94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 22c | 89.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 23c | 83.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 22c | 79.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 72.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…a602backed Yes | 30c | 64.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed Yes | 20c | 54.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 28c | 54.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 53.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 20c | 52.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 48.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 80c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 79c | 18.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 18.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 76c | 18.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 18.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 80c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.