Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd1437192ab30037655b5a8f26bf2c2ae6499a4837628f80b4a57715816b6766
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 30c | 719.26$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.72 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 5c | 599.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 361.78$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 74c | 306.07$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 71c | 282.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6295…6286backed Yes | 23c | 235.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 72c | 220.51$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 192.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 156.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 153.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 28c | 148.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 28c | 144.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 77c | 143.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 125$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 117.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 113$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa333…dc9bbacked Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 88.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…b1d9backed Yes | 24c | 75.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 70.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 71c | 65.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 28c | 63.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 21c | 61.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 61.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 57.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 55.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 68c | 54.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 73c | 51.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 29c | 51.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked No | 72c | 51.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 30c | 49.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 70c | 44.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 68c | 43.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 42.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed No | 70c | 40.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…a1f1backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 68c | 39.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 76c | 39.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked No | 77c | 36.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed No | 73c | 27.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 26.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 71c | 25.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 25.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 63c | 22.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 19.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 67c | 18.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 68c | 18.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…1780backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 72c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 14.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 68c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.