Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0d67adb2accd92e445075ebc9772db6f3e16b6355585ae35cc7678bf5c5c732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 76c | 538.78$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.95 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 356.78$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 42c | 356.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.47 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 324.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes | 45c | 323.5$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.89 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 35c | 288$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 80c | 250.47$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 248.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 7c | 245.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6295…6286backed No | 33c | 222.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 221.44$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 220.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 218$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 198.64$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 188.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 153.09$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 133.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 131.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 76c | 128$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 56c | 123.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 118.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 43c | 110.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 107.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa333…dc9bbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 90.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 82.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 46c | 77.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 58c | 70.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 60c | 58.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 54c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 55.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 60c | 49.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 73c | 40.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 60c | 36.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 42c | 35.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 42c | 29.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 41c | 25.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 41c | 25.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 41c | 25.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…d248backed Yes | 42c | 25.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…b366backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 23.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Yes | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 49c | 20.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…276fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 77c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 61c | 19.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 19.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 77c | 19.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.