MLB · resolved market
Mets vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbee3e0d17ef294cd90333e4e6d7894a30208ef9eb00205c1328dbef38dcf2926
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Mets, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9c4…ab5fbacked Mets | 62c | 14,137$8,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,700 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Cardinals | 45c | 10,800$4,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,938.08 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Cardinals | 53c | 10,700$5,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,035.71 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cardinals | 38c | 8,176$3,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,061.09 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cardinals | 37c | 6,770$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,269.74 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mets | 40c | 6,668$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.82 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…6591backed Cardinals | 51c | 6,399$3,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,117.23 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Cardinals | 37c | 3,862$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,432.83 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cardinals | 39c | 3,102$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,886.05 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Cardinals | 46c | 2,771$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.07 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Cardinals | 39c | 2,400$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 41c | 2,177$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.88 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Mets | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cardinals | 40c | 1,098$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.5 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Mets | 59c | 1,005$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Mets | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Mets | 59c | 929.76$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mets | 48c | 800$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mets | 45c | 685.99$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.7 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Mets | 63c | 630.63$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.57 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Mets | 44c | 627.16$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.47 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mets | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cardinals | 41c | 599.03$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.43 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Mets | 61c | 572.82$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.22 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…d127backed Cardinals | 39c | 481.57$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.35 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cardinals | 39c | 437$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.57 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Mets | 61c | 410$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cardinals | 41c | 403.56$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.1 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Mets | 41c | 357.86$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Cardinals | 41c | 350$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fc…3280backed Mets | 58c | 339.66$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cardinals | 41c | 331.73$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.04 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Mets | 32c | 307.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Cardinals | 45c | 296$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…d49ebacked Mets | 47c | 276$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mets | 61c | 260$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Cardinals | 37c | 232.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.43 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Mets | 36c | 225.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.33 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…021fbacked Cardinals | 38c | 177$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mets | 59c | 170.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mets | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Mets | 61c | 150$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Cardinals | 39c | 146$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.06 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Mets | 30c | 137.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Mets | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Cardinals | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Mets | 30c | 120.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Mets | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Cardinals | 43c | 102$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…aeb9backed Mets | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Mets | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cardinals | 39c | 90.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mets | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Cardinals | 39c | 77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Mets | 60c | 72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Mets | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Mets | 60c | 58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mets | 58c | 51.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Cardinals | 43c | 47.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Mets | 60c | 39.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Cardinals | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Cardinals | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Mets | 60c | 31.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Cardinals | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mets | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.