CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf36084a3213ceb701d17b28ae6f533753c74ef8bee22dd6048dd7a1bc281e29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Legacyof Aurora Gaming, Legacy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Legacy | 49c | 1,561$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.4 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Aurora Gaming | 56c | 1,248$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb9…95c9backed Legacy | 44c | 679.99$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.8 | 547 | 32.2%176 W · 371 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…c736backed Aurora Gaming | 55c | 636.59$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 143 | 62.9%90 W · 53 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Legacy | 68c | 618.28$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.85 | 451 | 62.3%281 W · 170 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Aurora Gaming | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…81f2backed Aurora Gaming | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd77f…05a4backed Legacy | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Aurora Gaming | 49c | 420.89$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.47 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Aurora Gaming | 16c | 351.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 233 | 33%77 W · 156 L | -22.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…8833backed Legacy | 66c | 272$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4e…3c05backed Aurora Gaming | 34c | 271$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb250…224fbacked Legacy | 66c | 271$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Aurora Gaming | 55c | 260.73$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 298 | 58.4%174 W · 124 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09c…6101backed Legacy | 66c | 248$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d9…6a7fbacked Aurora Gaming | 34c | 231$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce89…3b19backed Legacy | 66c | 231$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked Legacy | 59c | 219.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 406 | 55.7%226 W · 180 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…5b84backed Aurora Gaming | 50c | 209$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…6097backed Aurora Gaming | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…404dbacked Legacy | 64c | 191.77$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 139 | 47.5%66 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…663bbacked Aurora Gaming | 34c | 189$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Aurora Gaming | 36c | 179.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c01…7dfbbacked Legacy | 66c | 178$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…a605backed Aurora Gaming | 34c | 177$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Aurora Gaming | 32c | 143.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 217 | 37.3%81 W · 136 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…ef57backed Aurora Gaming | 34c | 132$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Aurora Gaming | 56c | 130$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 251 | 43.8%110 W · 141 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Aurora Gaming | 26c | 94.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed Aurora Gaming | 56c | 90.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Aurora Gaming | 42c | 83.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Legacy | 50c | 83.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +6.5wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Legacy | 57c | 70.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked Legacy | 52c | 63.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Legacy | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…f444backed Aurora Gaming | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 59.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…4fb2backed Aurora Gaming | 56c | 56.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 122 | 59.8%73 W · 49 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Aurora Gaming | 36c | 52.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Aurora Gaming | 56c | 51.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 184 | 47.8%88 W · 96 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…721ebacked Aurora Gaming | 55c | 50.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Aurora Gaming | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…c767backed Aurora Gaming | 51c | 46.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Legacy | 46c | 41.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Legacy | 34c | 35.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Legacy | 76c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 529 | 51.4%272 W · 257 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Aurora Gaming | 56c | 32.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 166 | 50.6%84 W · 82 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Aurora Gaming | 53c | 32.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 617 | 54.8%338 W · 279 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 31.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Aurora Gaming | 36c | 30.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…454fbacked Aurora Gaming | 36c | 30.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Aurora Gaming | 36c | 30.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Legacy | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Aurora Gaming | 57c | 29.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…c2a4backed Aurora Gaming | 62c | 29.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed Legacy | 80c | 29.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…091abacked Legacy | 40c | 25.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Aurora Gaming | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Legacy | 49c | 24.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 528 | 37.1%196 W · 332 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…df3cbacked Legacy | 53c | 23.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Legacy | 47c | 23.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…41a5backed Aurora Gaming | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2Aurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy - Map 1 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy - Map 2 WinnerLegacy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.