MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf5ce2a4acdfffde5c82fd31d80e3a67a898bca5ec59e8d6bc1c32e638f9bb5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 2,769$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.17 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 1,976$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.79 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 1,035$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 984.78$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.62 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 30c | 782.62$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.41 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago White Sox | 41c | 743.18$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.67 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago White Sox | 34c | 714.43$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 678.88$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.5 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 41c | 666.96$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 521.57$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.49 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago White Sox | 41c | 500.71$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.11 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 489.5$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.18 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 420$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 376.23$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.11 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 358.5$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 314.88$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 204.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 197.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Chicago White Sox | 50c | 195.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…3d9dbacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 177.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 173$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Chicago White Sox | 44c | 172.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 170.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 170.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Chicago White Sox | 43c | 169.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.7 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 153.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 145.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 121.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 121.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Chicago White Sox | 53c | 119.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 119.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 119.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Chicago White Sox | 53c | 115.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 97.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Chicago White Sox | 49c | 67.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago White Sox | 49c | 52.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…1299backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 51.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 48.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Chicago White Sox | 23c | 47.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Chicago White Sox | 23c | 47.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 46.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 43.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 42.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 42.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 41.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Chicago White Sox | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 32.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 23.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…57a4backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 18.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 2.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.