MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28ff95c6afcf54f8f45059b56484a3daaf3ce452605672244fac7f828ce9a929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 49c | 75,792$37,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,688.05 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 51c | 38,634$19,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,930.6 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcd…7ab2backed Over | 51c | 23,913$12,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,195.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 22,147$11,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,217.12 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 51c | 18,867$9,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,589.53 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 48c | 17,505$8,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,418.85 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 9,950$5,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,074.5 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Over | 49c | 4,825$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,364.1 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 50c | 3,252$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.27 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.94 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Over | 49c | 1,978$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.4 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Over | 52c | 1,050$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.99 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 51c | 951.71$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.37 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 47c | 722.48$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.91 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 51c | 596.56$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.47 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 49c | 494.59$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.24 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 51c | 464.42$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.85 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Over | 51c | 380.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d61…27e3backed Over | 49c | 356.59$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 49c | 343.13$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.95 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 49c | 296.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.41 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 265.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 51c | 254.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 51c | 224.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…27e5backed Over | 53c | 200.11$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 50c | 196.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Under | 44c | 178.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 49c | 172.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 51c | 141.77$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Over | 49c | 119.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 101.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 48c | 97.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Under | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 51c | 92.27$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 24c | 92.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 90.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 50c | 81.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5689…2b99backed Over | 49c | 79.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Over | 52c | 74.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb743…c116backed Under | 77c | 71.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…b283backed Over | 53c | 70.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 22c | 63.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Over | 51c | 61.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaae4…b1ccbacked Over | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Over | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Under | 51c | 54.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Under | 52c | 50.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 51c | 50.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 51c | 48.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked Under | 50c | 39.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 51c | 39.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 51c | 39.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 51c | 39.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 51c | 39.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 51c | 39.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…9b65backed Over | 50c | 38.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Under | 48c | 36.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 51c | 36.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Under | 48c | 32.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…c653backed Under | 48c | 32.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 51c | 28.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…a913backed Over | 53c | 27.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 51c | 26.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…405abacked Over | 51c | 25.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 53c | 23.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 51c | 22.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Over | 53c | 22.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…3cb7backed Over | 51c | 21.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9985…9b14backed Over | 52c | 19.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Over | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White SoxBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 2.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.