Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf73276c2a77bba3e893314ad02ed75365d4ed58a4aa02f004b55f58e816f435
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 78c | 337.54$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 225.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 213.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes | 34c | 205.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 188.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 169.89$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 159.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 75c | 159.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 155.8$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 150.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 26c | 124.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 120.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 26c | 119.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 111.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 30c | 109.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 108.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 33c | 94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bd…ae36backed Yes | 29c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 84.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 81.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 27c | 81.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 38c | 80.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 74.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 69.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…78d1backed No | 72c | 68.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7b…5d81backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 71c | 55.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 53.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed No | 70c | 52.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…7c9abacked No | 66c | 43.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb4…ba29backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…7b28backed Yes | 35c | 36.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 36.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 36c | 34.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 76c | 32.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 30.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…42f8backed No | 66c | 30.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 61c | 28.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…49c3backed Yes | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 66c | 25.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 25.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 79c | 24.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 80c | 20.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 16.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed No | 78c | 16.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.