TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,160

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes0c18,601$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.617231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed No80c1,860$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.4411883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes12c604$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.484,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes40c376.89$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15025933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No63c309$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.8986847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes46c288.12$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.038,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes41c226$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.664,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c86…eb28backed Yes40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked No30c195.82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8141331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c194.8$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.035,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes33c185.19$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes44c177.35$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.325,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes39c167.48$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3563538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No60c162.18$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.132,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c146.89$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked Yes40c145$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c143.54$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c141.89$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.619,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1440…7712backed No79c140$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.799035.6%32 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No67c140$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.21,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes33c136.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes38c136.21$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.232,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No66c127.57$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8917355.5%96 W · 77 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x733c…c0a7backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505538.2%21 W · 34 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes55c121.61$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2914752.4%77 W · 70 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes18c119.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.992,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No71c117.23$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes10c115.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.222,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes11c109.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.146,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked No27c108.69$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6822446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes76c103.01$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.531,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes50c100.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3848743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae4c…d114backed Yes41c97.02$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3919148.7%93 W · 98 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes45c94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.021,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c91.11$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.375,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No54c84.18$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.472,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No26c82.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.412,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c81.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.164,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c80.24$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.243,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes41c80.1$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c79.08$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes51c74.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.182,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes39c74.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.251,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No53c73.19$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.671,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e8e…9665backed Yes69c72.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503943.6%17 W · 22 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes45c72.76$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3347935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No61c72.55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4180560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No59c71.95$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.581,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No62c70.19$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c70$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No60c68.51$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.131,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.123,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa77e…aea7backed No60c64.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.852556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c78…80a0backed Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d44…7023backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.085680.4%45 W · 11 L+17.3wins+0.31per pick50cpaid+102.1%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x0840…cb52backed Yes41c53.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.961127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd7b…5d81backed Yes38c52.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes48c50.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.172,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.540461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405350.9%27 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe29f…cdd8backed No33c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7216641%68 W · 98 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed No29c48.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4439346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes42c47.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0823538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes42c47.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.612,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No42c45.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.252,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes34c45.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.482,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x658e…2914backed No64c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.352955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4d…3375backed No45c45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.951485.7%12 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+81.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x74fa…7baabacked No65c42.72$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.951172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+49.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No41c42.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1961752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf677…2efebacked Yes44c42.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.593537.1%13 W · 22 L-7.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-42.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xae5f…bc30backed No27c42.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.559339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No27c39.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0224751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No48c39.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.652,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes42c38.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0733746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c38.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.817,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes37c36.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.521,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No58c35.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes41c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No59c34.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.431,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4c2…5c65backed No58c34.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.311291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick65cpaid+40.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes72c33.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0810042%42 W · 58 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…7107backed Yes79c31.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255950.8%30 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid+29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc053…6041backed No64c31.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.121060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes36c31.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1687629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No57c30.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.182,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed No71c30.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9613242.4%56 W · 76 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No63c30.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.121,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes46c28.96$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.323,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc899…961abacked Yes37c28.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3850%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes64c27.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6499961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe35…57c3backed Yes45c27.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2510430.8%32 W · 72 L-16.9wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xdc4d…50b1backed No69c25.05$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6612972.1%93 W · 36 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d42…a046backed No63c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.763145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed No55c23.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.639752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No50c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4849543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.