MLB · resolved market

Mariners vs. Padres

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0005c84df13a6f4e0caa1aac2e543e7ec6a6b9ac942d7d26f2ad05fc58a1ab4

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Marinersof Mariners, Padres
Resolved: May 18, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $58,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,674 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x889e…09e0backed Padres	65c	20,029$13,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,018.84	279	48.4%135 W · 144 L	-11.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Mariners	35c	11,433$4,010 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,422.09	1,591	50.3%801 W · 790 L	+68.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11af…020abacked Padres	63c	9,999$6,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,299.37	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3a0…35c4backed Mariners	37c	9,993$3,697 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,295.59	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Mariners	35c	7,752$2,713 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,038.56	359	52.4%188 W · 171 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Mariners	37c	4,336$1,583 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,753.08	867	51.8%449 W · 418 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Mariners	35c	3,413$1,190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,223.36	1,203	44.2%532 W · 671 L	+20.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Mariners	37c	3,000$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,899.99	717	51%366 W · 351 L	+9.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70f8…d0d5backed Padres	76c	2,543$1,933 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,932.65	213	56.3%120 W · 93 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb23c…c49fbacked Padres	64c	1,563$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc1…4534backed Padres	64c	1,000$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.8wins	-0.11per pick	54cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9b6…2b6bbacked Mariners	36c	973.23$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$622.87	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Mariners	38c	928$354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$573.92	74	37.8%28 W · 46 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb2b8…b745backed Mariners	37c	800$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Padres	63c	800$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Padres	29c	728.42$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209	205	23.4%48 W · 157 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Padres	60c	701.02$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.17	797	40.4%322 W · 475 L	-19.1wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Padres	13c	629.37$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.35	1,180	7.2%85 W · 1,095 L	-13.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Padres	64c	623.17$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	885	49.7%440 W · 445 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Mariners	36c	622.82$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.45	308	42.9%132 W · 176 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Padres	62c	516.13$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	999	51%509 W · 490 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Mariners	37c	500$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315	932	40.5%377 W · 555 L	+14.2wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8854…882dbacked Padres	30c	500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-2.5wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff5c…ccbdbacked Mariners	37c	405.41$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.41	204	48.5%99 W · 105 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Padres	62c	384.42$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.57	686	56.4%387 W · 299 L	+38.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+10%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Mariners	47c	359.79$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.34	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres	63c	319.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2,267	53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L	-12.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Mariners	58c	314.32$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.57	1,530	50.5%772 W · 758 L	+20.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres	64c	311.03$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2,033	52.4%1,066 W · 967 L	-35.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Padres	65c	300$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	2,203	50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L	+29.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…3a6cbacked Mariners	36c	300$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Mariners	35c	295$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.75	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Padres	10c	289.22$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	258	35.3%91 W · 167 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26e9…4a51backed Mariners	37c	270.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.27	109	40.4%44 W · 65 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d83…94f3backed Padres	60c	199.12$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.82	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mariners	37c	192.86$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.76	639	42.7%273 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed Padres	64c	190.62$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	161	51.6%83 W · 78 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0cc…73e6backed Mariners	37c	176.92$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.46	145	39.3%57 W · 88 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Mariners	31c	167.72$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.33	979	50.2%491 W · 488 L	+49.6wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked Mariners	35c	153.76$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.94	237	53.2%126 W · 111 L	+6.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Padres	63c	153.36$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.48	333	49.5%165 W · 168 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Padres	63c	123.98$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.1	519	55.3%287 W · 232 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd33b…4e00backed Mariners	44c	113.64$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.64	98	54.1%53 W · 45 L	+8.4wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4010…9236backed Padres	64c	109.38$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-4.2wins	-0.11per pick	55cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c88…5685backed Mariners	37c	108.11$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.11	77	53.2%41 W · 36 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Padres	63c	100$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-7.7wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81f8…ead6backed Mariners	35c	100$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Mariners	37c	100$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee57…33a7backed Mariners	37c	100$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed Mariners	36c	99.99$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.99	204	48%98 W · 106 L	+6.0wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Mariners	35c	92$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.8	2,045	53.8%1,100 W · 945 L	+32.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Mariners	36c	86.3$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.95	850	47.4%403 W · 447 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Padres	64c	78.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	944	55.3%522 W · 422 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Padres	33c	75.76$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,213	40.5%491 W · 722 L	-32.1wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Padres	19c	74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	46	32.6%15 W · 31 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Mariners	37c	71$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.73	432	50.7%219 W · 213 L	+10.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Padres	63c	68.25$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	87	49.4%43 W · 44 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02c7…3df7backed Padres	66c	60.61$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	551	52.5%289 W · 262 L	-8.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Padres	24c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	217	67.7%147 W · 70 L	+36.1wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf442…ccf8backed Mariners	47c	57.32$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.44	108	34.3%37 W · 71 L	-8.0wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Mariners	35c	57.14$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.14	206	45.1%93 W · 113 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Mariners	37c	50$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	655	49.3%323 W · 332 L	-7.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef63…96cbbacked Padres	64c	50$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	467	53.7%251 W · 216 L	-11.0wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Mariners	35c	42.86$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.86	259	54.1%140 W · 119 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Padres	56c	41.56$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.28	1,212	52.1%631 W · 581 L	+21.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Mariners	37c	40.54$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.54	382	45.5%174 W · 208 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Mariners	36c	39.99$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.59	1,466	44.1%647 W · 819 L	+44.0wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Mariners	40c	37.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	525	42.5%223 W · 302 L	+2.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x459e…9931backed Padres	61c	32.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	74	52.7%39 W · 35 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e1…c293backed Padres	63c	31.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	68	69.1%47 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	69cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Padres	64c	31.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	76	52.6%40 W · 36 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	61cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb579…f458backed Mariners	37c	29.64$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.64	355	51.5%183 W · 172 L	+24.5wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b32…993dbacked Mariners	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Mariners	54c	24.47$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.24	806	80%645 W · 161 L	+173.6wins	+0.22per pick	58cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	73+0.21 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked Padres	62c	19.35$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.15per pick	72cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mariners vs. Padres

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market