Tennis · resolved market
Swiss Indoors Basel: Lorenzo Sonego vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc011f485fb3508cd04bacbc40c09dc2a4944f6269235121418981863a8167665
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fokinaof Sonego, Fokina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52d2…2280backed Fokina | 59c | 5,555$3,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sonego | 39c | 2,199$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.29 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Sonego | 16c | 1,597$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Sonego | 12c | 1,575$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sonego | 46c | 1,229$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.54 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Fokina | 75c | 1,157$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.83 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fokina | 79c | 834$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.83 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Fokina | 49c | 711.62$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.93 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Fokina | 63c | 700$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Sonego | 33c | 582$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Fokina | 57c | 555$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.65 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sonego | 49c | 518.74$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.54 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Fokina | 37c | 483.78$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.78 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed Fokina | 55c | 477$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.65 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sonego | 38c | 369.94$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.27 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e0…9fc1backed Fokina | 67c | 297.34$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Fokina | 62c | 264.66$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.57 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Fokina | 58c | 235.78$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Sonego | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Sonego | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Fokina | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Sonego | 24c | 141.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Fokina | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Sonego | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c5…2cb2backed Sonego | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Fokina | 63c | 64.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sonego | 34c | 61.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Fokina | 62c | 58.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…bdb3backed Fokina | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Fokina | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sonego | 42c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Fokina | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…0feebacked Fokina | 59c | 37.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Fokina | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Fokina | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Sonego | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…8849backed Fokina | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Sonego | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Fokina | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.