Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc01a6fc55d37c540393e0f8811458414bedee7ecd4116371500acce84844a2a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Down | 49c | 22,415$10,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,982.62 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 53c | 13,035$6,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,155.13 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 56c | 3,115$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.82 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c1…4ebbbacked Down | 56c | 2,988$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Up | 37c | 2,800$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,754.99 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Up | 38c | 2,600$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 42c | 2,246$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.18 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…a087backed Up | 63c | 2,158$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…551fbacked Down | 60c | 2,069$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x454e…36cbbacked Up | 47c | 2,000$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Up | 45c | 1,834$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.98 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 42c | 1,738$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.16 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 65c | 1,498$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.11 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34eb…ee4dbacked Down | 55c | 1,417$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Down | 55c | 1,400$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Up | 43c | 1,173$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.46 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…d218backed Up | 36c | 1,129$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 48c | 1,121$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.24 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…48a5backed Down | 59c | 1,116$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 44c | 1,043$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.82 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…20b3backed Down | 50c | 1,014$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.54 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Up | 46c | 1,002$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.31 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 40c | 995$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.49 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ac…df97backed Up | 42c | 839.99$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Down | 66c | 747.41$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down | 37c | 633$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.8 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…f559backed Down | 47c | 551.31$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.94 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 67c | 501.38$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.87 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…378abacked Up | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Up | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f7d1backed Up | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Up | 67c | 496.88$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.83 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Down | 5c | 487.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Down | 33c | 431$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4cc7backed Up | 76c | 417.65$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Up | 47c | 408$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.24 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Down | 6c | 359.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 74c | 260.65$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…a9fdbacked Up | 31c | 235.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 51c | 216.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.42 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…e73dbacked Down | 60c | 210.34$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 55c | 202.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4016…4623backed Down | 53c | 201$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked Down | 59c | 201$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…54acbacked Up | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Down | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…b2adbacked Up | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Down | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 36c | 199.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…ef22backed Down | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Up | 39c | 110.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 51c | 101.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Up | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…2545backed Down | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed Down | 53c | 85.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Down | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Up | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6b…1bc2backed Down | 65c | 56.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc82…69a0backed Down | 31c | 51.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…558bbacked Down | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0e…219dbacked Up | 43c | 40.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d07…1562backed Down | 38c | 36.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbb…f6d8backed Down | 64c | 30.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed6f…2378backed Down | 63c | 30.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…e5d7backed Down | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Up | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c5…787cbacked Down | 63c | 27.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked Down | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Down | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d2…09cdbacked Down | 65c | 15.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.