Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 157.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0f34c3562734786baa06a37dd2ea17ea9bfe5599eef1add847bd4629bcc8d1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,978 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 52c | 14,310$7,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,438.12 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 11,106$5,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,676.38 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Over | 48c | 5,751$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,990.73 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 50c | 4,956$2,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.13 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 51c | 2,221$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.47 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 49c | 2,201$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.57 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 48c | 1,951$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.42 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 50c | 315.01$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.34 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 53c | 252.13$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 50c | 245.6$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.8 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 52c | 148.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 45c | 135.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 47c | 123.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 118.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 51c | 86.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 49c | 84.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 73.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Over | 48c | 72.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed Over | 48c | 55.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…4cf7backed Over | 48c | 51.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 45c | 45.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…e3e3backed Over | 55c | 45.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 157.5this page
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-9.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniWisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 153.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 156.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.