Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ef28032227b41a12eed5773bc75223c9323e8a514b85fe8cf8db2a5b8cf5aa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wisconsin Badgersof Illinois Fighting Illini, Wisconsin Badgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,899 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 27,109$14,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,347.54 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 22,190$10,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,444.8 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 6,016$2,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,238.15 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb44f…8c20backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 4,105$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.46 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 2,868$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.23 | 177 | 42.9%76 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 52c | 1,667$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.84 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 52c | 1,632$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.93 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…83b9backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 1,451$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.23 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 1,388$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.53 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 1,281$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.61 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +16.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 754.02$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.17 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e87…4891backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 619.54$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 619.54$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.16 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Wisconsin Badgers | 45c | 500.32$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.05 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 495.88$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.52 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 424.52$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.24 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 51c | 259.02$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 247.82$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.86 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 227.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.13 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 56c | 203.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.34 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 187.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 55c | 180.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 179.7$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.23 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 173.47$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0d…65ebbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 121.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 119.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…19acbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 117.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 110.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 103.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…8fc5backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 103.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 101.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0e…3311backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 55c | 95.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 79.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 74.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 71.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…a8e1backed Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 64.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 61.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…5034backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 59.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 54.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 54.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 58c | 51.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 51.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 49.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0799…567cbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 47.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 43.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 41.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…13d4backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 41.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 54c | 36.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 241 | 48.5%117 W · 124 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 54c | 36.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 54c | 36.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 34.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…5165backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 27.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 24.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 55c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-9.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniWisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 153.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 156.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 157.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.