TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Wisconsin Badgersof Illinois Fighting Illini, Wisconsin Badgers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,899 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabb8…bba3backed Illinois Fighting Illini53c27,109$14,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,347.5424351.4%125 W · 118 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Wisconsin Badgers48c22,190$10,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,444.841752.5%219 W · 198 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wisconsin Badgers46c6,016$2,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,238.155,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb44f…8c20backed Illinois Fighting Illini53c4,105$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,175.465238.5%20 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Wisconsin Badgers47c2,868$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.2317742.9%76 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Illinois Fighting Illini52c1,667$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.8415858.2%92 W · 66 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Illinois Fighting Illini52c1,632$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.932,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Illinois Fighting Illini53c1,451$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.237048.6%34 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Illinois Fighting Illini53c1,388$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.537251.4%37 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Wisconsin Badgers46c1,281$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.6115453.9%83 W · 71 L+16.8wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Wisconsin Badgers46c754.02$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.171,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e87…4891backed Wisconsin Badgers48c619.54$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.161844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Wisconsin Badgers48c619.54$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.1678052.2%407 W · 373 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Wisconsin Badgers45c500.32$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.0537246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wisconsin Badgers47c495.88$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.5212,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Wisconsin Badgers46c424.52$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.2427755.2%153 W · 124 L+19.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Illinois Fighting Illini51c259.02$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.471,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Wisconsin Badgers48c247.82$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.8610252%53 W · 49 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Wisconsin Badgers48c227.16$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1379448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Illinois Fighting Illini56c203.87$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3431448.7%153 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Wisconsin Badgers46c187.13$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.373,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Illinois Fighting Illini55c180.24$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1333855%186 W · 152 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Wisconsin Badgers49c179.7$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.232,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa097…fba7backed Wisconsin Badgers51c173.47$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859148.4%44 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0d…65ebbacked Illinois Fighting Illini53c121.25$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.43714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-71.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7eb…eb13backed Wisconsin Badgers48c119.32$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0afb…19acbacked Wisconsin Badgers48c117.8$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.251330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Wisconsin Badgers48c110.03$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2213342.1%56 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…2687backed Wisconsin Badgers48c103.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.697450%37 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ac…8fc5backed Wisconsin Badgers48c103.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.697044.3%31 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93f1…b99dbacked Wisconsin Badgers48c101.56$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.814763.8%30 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e0e…3311backed Illinois Fighting Illini55c95.53$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Wisconsin Badgers49c79.56$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2329337.2%109 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Illinois Fighting Illini53c74.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6511741.9%49 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Wisconsin Badgers48c71.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.160954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d11…a8e1backed Wisconsin Badgers46c64.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.961560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Wisconsin Badgers48c61.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.222254.5%12 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb0f…5034backed Wisconsin Badgers48c59.92$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Wisconsin Badgers46c54.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2130054%162 W · 138 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e2…2ed0backed Illinois Fighting Illini53c54.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7511552.2%60 W · 55 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Illinois Fighting Illini58c51.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9421850.9%111 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Wisconsin Badgers46c51.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4221342.3%90 W · 123 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Wisconsin Badgers48c49.56$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7734952.1%182 W · 167 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0799…567cbacked Wisconsin Badgers48c47.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Wisconsin Badgers48c43.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7535338.5%136 W · 217 L-18.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Wisconsin Badgers48c41.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9664647.5%307 W · 339 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e3…13d4backed Wisconsin Badgers48c41.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.485100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+96.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Illinois Fighting Illini54c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9832850%164 W · 164 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Illinois Fighting Illini54c36.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8624148.5%117 W · 124 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Illinois Fighting Illini54c36.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8130050.7%152 W · 148 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Illinois Fighting Illini54c36.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8148551.1%248 W · 237 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Wisconsin Badgers51c34.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1230652%159 W · 147 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2177…5165backed Wisconsin Badgers48c27.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Wisconsin Badgers47c24.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7982846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba8…11a2backed Illinois Fighting Illini55c19.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.92955.2%16 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.