Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb3c30816a055d38166159a8df4125dab3b1eb0a37470435e93720a6594fc7e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wisconsin Badgersof Illinois Fighting Illini, Wisconsin Badgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,576 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 26,544$13,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,172.67 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 10,127$5,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,019.09 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 5,254$2,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,626.81 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 4,302$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.85 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.99 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…63d4backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 3,844$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…da8bbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 48c | 3,810$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 3,242$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.28 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Wisconsin Badgers | 54c | 1,295$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.84 | 164 | 45.1%74 W · 90 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 1,070$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.14 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e7…884cbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 46c | 615.61$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.18 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 600.47$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.34 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 555.1$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 525.93$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.19 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 502.12$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.98 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 485.91$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.1 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 483$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.84 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 467.59$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.77 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 49c | 447.01$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.62 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 343.39$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.04 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 48c | 310.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 298.66$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.35 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 47c | 258.63$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 247.81$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.43 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 48c | 226.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 221.06$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 206.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 52c | 205$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Wisconsin Badgers | 56c | 171.87$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 47c | 152$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.44 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 47c | 150.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 47c | 139.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 126.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…8fc5backed Wisconsin Badgers | 34c | 99.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Wisconsin Badgers | 52c | 99.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 47c | 90.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 81.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 81.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 81.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…c088backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 48c | 80.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 47c | 73.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 56.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 49c | 51.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 49.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 47.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2121…51d9backed Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 47c | 36.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…f943backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 35.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 33.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…f137backed Wisconsin Badgers | 48c | 30.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Wisconsin Badgers | 44c | 30.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Wisconsin Badgers | 51c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c06…8b38backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 79c | 25.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 47c | 25.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 22.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 59c | 20.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 53c | 20.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-9.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniWisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 153.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 156.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 157.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.