Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 156.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6091fea91f7a7e508fb6c3942d6155c3576745f83b734b2016f70e8532e45739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,415 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 50c | 20,564$10,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,201.02 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked Over | 53c | 9,433$4,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,476.51 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 4,318$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.32 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 51c | 3,115$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.91 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 50c | 1,992$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.21 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Under | 47c | 634.42$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.18 | 160 | 54.4%87 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 52c | 520.41$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.62 | 237 | 54.9%130 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 501.96$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…ee95backed Over | 50c | 495.63$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.81 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Over | 52c | 480$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.4 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 46c | 245.64$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 141 | 51.1%72 W · 69 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Over | 50c | 237.9$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 48c | 206$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.88 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 46c | 205.61$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.03 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Over | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Over | 50c | 158.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +7.0wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 54c | 148.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 144.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…9d57backed Over | 52c | 141$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 52c | 134.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 54c | 128.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 51c | 127$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 123.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 112.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed Over | 51c | 103.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Over | 51c | 93.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6646…0925backed Under | 48c | 92.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked Over | 52c | 88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 56.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Under | 50c | 55.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…16cbbacked Under | 48c | 47.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked Over | 50c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 106 | 38.7%41 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 50c | 34.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 51c | 31.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Over | 50c | 25.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 50c | 23.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 156.5this page
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-7.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-8.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-9.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting IlliniWisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 153.5Over won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 157.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.