Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0f6984001ced17ee50f9b65b7a9f52cae1479446105bfd51cf9d89b0877a680
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 3,365$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.56 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 2,139$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,278$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.35 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 10c | 1,237$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.16 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,081$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 8c | 872.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 5c | 789.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 699.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 14c | 659.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 5c | 649.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 568.61$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 35c | 498.7$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.65 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 479.1$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 5c | 436.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 10c | 414.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 311.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 304.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 33c | 295.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…788abacked Yes | 14c | 266.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 13c | 242.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 28c | 239.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 67c | 237.8$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 14c | 218.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 6c | 211.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 199.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 14c | 199.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 5c | 193.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 5c | 193.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 18c | 191.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 10c | 187.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 178$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b0…af8fbacked Yes | 35c | 177.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 70c | 166.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 21c | 160.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 155.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 18c | 140.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 26c | 133.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 79c | 126.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 20c | 114.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 106.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…cd51backed Yes | 23c | 105.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 103.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 27c | 92.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 14c | 87.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 16c | 86.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 17c | 84.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 57c | 82.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 63c | 76.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 55c | 74.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…9fffbacked Yes | 34c | 66.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes | 16c | 63.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 63.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 30c | 61.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 76c | 52.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked No | 79c | 48.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 73c | 44.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…3923backed Yes | 23c | 43.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 67c | 41.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 41.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…d247backed No | 76c | 39.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 67c | 38.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 71c | 33.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 71c | 23.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed No | 56c | 22.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 62c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 78c | 15.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.