Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58343edaa94b120000e20c0ca54673dc8ec527a8c1d0a64e5f02ed622306cd95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 79c | 1,665$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.09 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,267$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.72 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 26c | 956.84$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.22 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 23c | 673.1$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.78 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 22c | 558.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 29c | 470.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.39 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 75c | 455.48$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.28 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 26c | 358.45$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 358.31$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 76c | 341.54$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 67c | 297.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 286$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 258.22$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 254.23$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 22c | 242.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 28c | 220.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 18c | 212.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 18c | 204.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 200.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 196.34$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 26c | 193.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 74c | 189.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 21c | 188.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 26c | 187.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 75c | 181.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 28c | 177.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 175.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 166.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 156.71$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Yes | 20c | 154.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 26c | 146.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 145.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 25c | 144.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 25c | 144.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 135.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 133.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 23c | 130.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 129.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 32c | 111.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 25c | 110.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 109.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 102.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 99.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 31c | 96.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 25c | 95.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 94.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 25c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 29c | 89.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 89.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes | 19c | 88.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 28c | 87.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 23c | 86.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 70c | 82.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 17c | 82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 14c | 79.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 77c | 78.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 23c | 76.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 73c | 74.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029a…8039backed Yes | 26c | 71.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 77c | 68.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…1d3abacked Yes | 33c | 68.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 24c | 66.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 24c | 66.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 76c | 65.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 26c | 65.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 35c | 60.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 22c | 60.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 56.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…24a7backed Yes | 30c | 56.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 75c | 54.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 78c | 51.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 76c | 51.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 28c | 51.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…a294backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 49.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 76c | 49.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 77c | 49.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 47.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 47.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 33c | 46.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 45.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 38c | 45.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 26c | 44.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 43.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 28c | 42.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 42.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 26c | 39.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 74c | 39.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 78c | 39.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 72c | 38.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 37.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Yes | 27c | 37.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 62c | 35.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 74c | 34.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 74c | 33.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.