Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc12df6f392c5f9e69c701ef3948ae848100d998ad7595f045a4d5744cc5639f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 1,070$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 19c | 588.72$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 551.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 329.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 225.09$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 194.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 20c | 184.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 175.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 21c | 174$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 164.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 78c | 154$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 23c | 149.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 16c | 126$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 16c | 125.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 21c | 124.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 14c | 118.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 18c | 100.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 22c | 99.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 18c | 96.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 22c | 96.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 83.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 22c | 74.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 70.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 16c | 66.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 22c | 64.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 64.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 22c | 59.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff3…fab6backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 46.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 37.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 32.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 79c | 31.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 29.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 78c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 18.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.