TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,480
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,828

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,480 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes25c449.15$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.391,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes31c301.65$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.81,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No79c237.37$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.594,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes22c202.13$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.716,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes23c193.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.532,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c188.33$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.715,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No69c159.28$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.12,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c141.29$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes13c140.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.858,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes23c112.25$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.822,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fad…1a08backed Yes29c103.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306758.2%39 W · 28 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes30c96.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8223731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes21c87.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.466,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c75$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.854,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff32…7da9backed No78c75$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.256536.9%24 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes26c72.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9518567.6%125 W · 60 L+28.7wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes35c69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.152,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed Yes32c64.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6215449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No70c62.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4127…a8cebacked Yes35c56.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203452.9%18 W · 16 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+29.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes18c56.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.192,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes22c54.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.722,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes21c52.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e90…2005backed Yes29c52.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a9…4cd6backed Yes31c51.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No78c50.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1721264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes24c46.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.112,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes34c44.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67f4…f91bbacked No77c43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.896100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes30c42.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6621451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes32c40.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.722,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No70c38.73$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.794552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No70c38.72$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.723,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb430…efc9backed Yes33c36.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128231.7%26 W · 56 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c35.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.989,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No60c31.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.84,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No70c31.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3128456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No70c29.77$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.833,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No70c28.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5894066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbabc…f582backed No69c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.375971.2%42 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefc…58febacked No77c25.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.976564.6%42 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed No67c22.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.247665.8%50 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No68c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0433746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No75c21.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.31,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f7…b1a8backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.66566.2%43 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.280962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No65c19.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.831,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f8…4a32backed No77c19.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.571560%9 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No66c18.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.434,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No70c18.57$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5744567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d38…825dbacked No66c18.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.182552%13 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick66cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No70c17.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1428866.3%191 W · 97 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No68c15.21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.831,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.449675.4%374 W · 122 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No75c14.74$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.732,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No76c13.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.172,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.