Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc13718b4e8c41aabbe3dca67c80f9ccef1fa2b096c8bfab380adb15e79ed08af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,002 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 2c | 4,963$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b83abacked No | 4c | 1,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,286$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 8c | 1,178$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.64 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c2…5fc4backed No | 3c | 960.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 5c | 929.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 928.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 3c | 732.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 4c | 700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 18c | 635.67$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f71…9c46backed Yes | 80c | 634.56$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…ee98backed No | 2c | 538.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 10c | 434.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 76c | 434.17$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 5c | 403.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed No | 6c | 339.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed No | 4c | 336.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b0…cf23backed No | 4c | 329$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3dd…cfc9backed No | 4c | 307$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629a…3160backed No | 4c | 265.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 215.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 25c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…3101backed Yes | 78c | 185.91$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 39c | 183.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 12c | 164.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 11c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95d…6a82backed No | 32c | 96.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 19c | 82.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 40c | 63.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…0d48backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 73c | 55.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 39c | 53.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 29c | 37.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f4…1c9cbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.