NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1bf5cf0ee643793870e0a9203760c33a667c6ccec49b04f9c77c2de3d88d4ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 55c | 117,297$64,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,181.81 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 45c | 72,536$32,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,640.51 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Over | 46c | 43,974$20,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,228.05 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Under | 55c | 8,833$4,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,006.15 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 45c | 6,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.85 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 2,714$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.4 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 45c | 1,398$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.45 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Over | 45c | 904.98$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.24 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 711.23$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.68 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…5fa1backed Under | 55c | 666.56$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Under | 56c | 488.46$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.18 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 55c | 461.1$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.8 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 54c | 443.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…13bfbacked Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Under | 55c | 355.84$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.13 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 412 | 48.3%199 W · 213 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…9ea3backed Under | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Under | 55c | 222.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…fd45backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 45c | 177$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Under | 55c | 144.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.16 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 54c | 139.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…b0b6backed Under | 57c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Under | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 23c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 45c | 99.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…d430backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 55c | 78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…dc93backed Under | 56c | 66.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 66.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 45c | 58.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 45c | 54.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 45c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 45c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 45c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 273 | 34.4%94 W · 179 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…9696backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…5cf9backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0465…5ff4backed Over | 49c | 24.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed Under | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…81f6backed Under | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…dbd2backed Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5this page
- Avalanche vs. WildWild won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Wild won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.