Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1dca4a74f2241c18f089e8d5f004444dd6670f2e29e6ae8fc1b6421812e31b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 21c | 10,097$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.97 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 4,681$3,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.47 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 80c | 1,367$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.05 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 77c | 1,307$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.15 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 22c | 593.15$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.49 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 20c | 477.05$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 78c | 427.09$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.77 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 79c | 403.48$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 78c | 271.32$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 79c | 200.76$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 21c | 189.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 184.62$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 79c | 177$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 21c | 166.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 79c | 134.03$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 79c | 74.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 22c | 69.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 79c | 63.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 80c | 45.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 80c | 32.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 80c | 21.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5this page
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.