Mls · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3ef52cb9cc512106d26a99c12ac517cffaded935cb4a5007bb7951086c962e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Fire FCof Chicago Fire FC, CF Montréal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Chicago Fire FC | 40c | 1,515$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.94 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Chicago Fire FC | 26c | 570$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.51 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Chicago Fire FC | 49c | 521.69$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.3 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Chicago Fire FC | 48c | 444.75$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.91 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked CF Montréal | 62c | 441.4$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.72 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked Chicago Fire FC | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked CF Montréal | 72c | 421.4$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.7 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed CF Montréal | 74c | 383$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.42 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Chicago Fire FC | 30c | 354.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.52 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked CF Montréal | 56c | 250$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed CF Montréal | 69c | 216.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked CF Montréal | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed CF Montréal | 74c | 155.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed CF Montréal | 73c | 150.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed CF Montréal | 80c | 114.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked CF Montréal | 45c | 108.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked CF Montréal | 73c | 88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Fire FC | 20c | 85.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked CF Montréal | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Chicago Fire FC | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked CF Montréal | 56c | 60.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Chicago Fire FC | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed CF Montréal | 64c | 30.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked CF Montréal | 65c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 94 | 37.2%35 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked CF Montréal | 66c | 16.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked CF Montréal | 70c | 16.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)this page
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.