Mls · resolved market
CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa20d4c2eb6ad88a19191f4bf6cca9cc93f8583cf2118934cdf245b0205b8de46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 43c | 1,221$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.66 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 62c | 727.11$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.29 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed No | 39c | 653.43$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.59 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 60c | 449.97$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.98 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 40c | 414.92$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.05 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57bb…9302backed Yes | 63c | 301.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…9980backed Yes | 64c | 289.72$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 52c | 269.22$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.04 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 37c | 256.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.27 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 36c | 226.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.02 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…cba6backed Yes | 48c | 208$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b57…95e1backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 36c | 138.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 62c | 136$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…4094backed Yes | 63c | 101.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…534ebacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Yes | 66c | 83.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 37c | 81.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 37c | 63.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Yes | 76c | 56.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde51…f222backed No | 38c | 53.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 36c | 46.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0378…030bbacked Yes | 64c | 33.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 62c | 29.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…3483backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.