Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1dcdc7ffbb5dc952792c39e1cf57cfca74d3ea86339e635f1e011c52833c20d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 528.5$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.49 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 453.94$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 40c | 400.07$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.94 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 265.17$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.51 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 243.09$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 46c | 239.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 233$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 36c | 210$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 180.59$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 173.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 39c | 164.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 60c | 160.07$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 160$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 142.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 140.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 61c | 140$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 36c | 122.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 120.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 41c | 111.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 107.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 57c | 101.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 43c | 99.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 43c | 99.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 62c | 92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 36c | 86.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 85.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 83.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed No | 67c | 74.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 70.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…8ad6backed Yes | 40c | 67.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 37c | 62.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed Yes | 40c | 62.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 57.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 65c | 57.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 25c | 54.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…68babacked Yes | 35c | 53.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 60c | 50.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 47.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 47.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 60c | 46.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 37c | 44.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 44.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 41.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 60c | 39.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 39.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 40c | 39.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 38.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 37c | 38.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 36.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 33.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 33.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 27.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 25.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…dc4ebacked Yes | 43c | 25.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 22.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 18.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 18.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 59c | 17.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 83°F or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.