Arda Güler: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1e12d1870fee2ac293559aff7614b038f95b0f481f579448835c0e5d10beeb8

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,723
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,701

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,723 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5159…d7aebacked No	68c	1,500$1,020 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$479.99	165	64.2%106 W · 59 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Yes	32c	1,238$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	90	40%36 W · 54 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	67c	508.42$341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.78	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aca…95e4backed Yes	32c	471.41$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No	69c	290.82$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.15	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe1c9…748cbacked No	77c	259.74$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.74	56	58.9%33 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Yes	23c	259.74$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.74	73	37%27 W · 46 L	-7.6wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No	69c	185$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.35	512	50.4%258 W · 254 L	+31.5wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Yes	31c	159.53$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	197	42.1%83 W · 114 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb417…6d8fbacked Yes	57c	139.59$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x465d…b5e9backed Yes	32c	130.06$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.62	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89d3…b3aebacked Yes	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No	68c	99.99$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f3…0285backed Yes	29c	88$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adc…6b14backed Yes	30c	83.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	667	45%300 W · 367 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9136…eec3backed Yes	31c	64.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	33.9%21 W · 41 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba34…32b8backed Yes	32c	62.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	261	51.7%135 W · 126 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No	72c	62.15$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.43	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5690…7a58backed No	39c	58.75$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.84	87	31%27 W · 60 L	+7.4wins	+0.08per pick	23cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ff4…131abacked Yes	25c	52$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa599…9176backed No	68c	49.98$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.99	151	77.5%117 W · 34 L	+13.1wins	+0.09per pick	69cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x07d5…81a6backed Yes	32c	46.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac50…d728backed Yes	32c	44.39$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-4.3wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	70c	37.88$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.33	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac5a…1ac8backed No	38c	35.57$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.05	82	31.7%26 W · 56 L	+8.1wins	+0.10per pick	22cpaid	+42%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x921a…85d7backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d8…2e25backed Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	76	36.8%28 W · 48 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	77c	26.31$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.05	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	69c	20.11$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.16	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	172	71.5%123 W · 49 L	+12.8wins	+0.07per pick	64cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Arda Güler: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event