Asian League · resolved market
Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1edc694531d3b608326a3e476e78856b057143aa40f0dd46164716a90caabd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 52c | 1,653$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.41 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 45c | 859.71$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.61 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 72c | 672.12$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.92 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +116%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 15c | 544.08$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 47c | 404.26$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.26 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 36c | 401.06$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.03 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed Yes | 51c | 388.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.39 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Yes | 54c | 368.52$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.52 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 72c | 366.66$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 47c | 249.1$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.94 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 9c | 200.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 31c | 164.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 73c | 160.32$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…9182backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…924ebacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 45c | 138.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 17c | 109$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…9fc3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…d4eabacked Yes | 45c | 97.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Yes | 28c | 69.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 26c | 64.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 65c | 61.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked No | 75c | 58.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x020e…69c1backed No | 48c | 52.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…0c3bbacked No | 57c | 47.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 59c | 42.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…b5d1backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…5d42backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…8973backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…f019backed Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Yes | 77c | 20.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…45fbbacked No | 74c | 16.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?this page
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-04-29?No won
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-04-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.